The Fighting Irish return to South Bend on the heels of the biggest win of Marcus Freeman’s
tenure, a tough 23-13 road win over Texas A&M in College Station, and they’ll welcome the
Northern Illinois Huskies for their week 2 home opener. This will be the very first matchup between NIU and Notre Dame, and the first of two MAC teams on the Irish schedule this year. The Huskies will serve as a more traditional season warm up for the Irish, giving them a safer environment to cycle in younger guys, make some adjustments, and try new things, an approach they didn’t have the luxury of taking with A&M. The Aggies were arguably the toughest opponent on Notre Dame’s relatively easy 2024 schedule, but with a marquee win already in their bag, the Irish now face a different kind of challenge - focus.
Photo by The Irish Tribune
In recent years, Notre Dame has fallen victim to a “hangover” of sorts, routinely struggling against easier competition following primetime week 1 matchups, whether they win or not. Over the last 6 seasons, there’s been 3 instances where Notre Dame faced a blue chip opponent to open the season, and then struggled the following week against a Group-of-Five team:
2018 - Notre Dame beat No. 14 Michigan in week 1 - Struggled against Ball State at home
in week 2, winning an ugly struggle 24-16.
2021 - Notre Dame beat Florida State in overtime on the road in week 1 - Struggled
against unranked Toledo at home in week 2, coming down to a game last minute
touchdown drive to squeak out a 32-29 win.
2022 - Notre Dame fell to Ohio State on the road in week 1- Lost to unranked Marshall at
home in week 2, 21-26.
Additionally, Marcus Freeman played a part in 2 of these games: He was in his first year as DC
in 2021 for the Toledo game, and was in first-year as head coach in 2022 for the Marshall loss. This tendency to take their foot off the pedal is precisely why there’s some concern going into the NIU game, and why “focus” needs to be a top priority for Freeman and the 2024 squad.
NIU
Northern Illinois’ Head Coach Thomas Hammock is now in his 6th year with the Huskies, coming off a 7-6 campaign in 2023, along with a 25-33 career record. Although 7-6 isn’t necessarily impressive, the Huskies have won 7 of their last 9 games, largely behind their biggest strength - experience.
The 2024 Huskies return 18 starters from their 2023 squad, good for a 63% on the returning talent index, along with 32 seniors (6th most in the country), 21 of whom have played their entire career at NIU. Unlike Notre Dame’s trip to College Station, NIU’s week 1 matchup was more of a traditional season warm-up, and boy did they leave the game hot. After a slow 1st quarter, the Huskies held a slim 6-3 lead over the Western Illinois Leathernecks, but 28 unanswered points gave them a commanding 34-3 lead at halftime. The 2nd half wasn’t much different than the first, and NIU left with the win, absolutely dismantling the Leathernecks, 54-15.
Due to 3-year starting QB Rocky Lombardi’s departure for the NFL, the Huskies entered week 1 amidst a position battle and without an undisputed starter at QB. That uncertainty was quickly cleared up when Ethan Hampton took over in the 2nd quarter and showed Hammock and his staff why he was their guy. Hampton put on a clinic, going a nearly perfect 18/20 for 328 yards, 5 TDs, and a 98.1 QBR, more than enough to beat out junior Jalen Macon for the starting job. Hampton tossed the ball to 11 different receivers in week 1, 4 of whom were running backs, but senior wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph and senior tight end Grayson Barnes led the pack. Barnes posted a team-high 5 receptions for 95 yards, 1 touchdown, and a team-leading 60-yard catch, while Rudolph put up a team-high 104 yards on 4 receptions, 1 touchdown, and a 47-yard grab. Rudolph also displayed his skills as a flex weapon for the Huskies, getting in on the run game with 67 yards on only 2 rushes, one of which was a 60-yard touchdown dash.
NIU’s backfield is led by arguably their best offensive weapon, senior Antario Brown, who put up nearly 1,300 yards in 2023, along with 10 touchdowns, a 6.1-yard rush average, and 1 receiving touchdown. Against the Leathernecks, Brown saw light duty with only 8 rushes, but picked up 69 yards on the ground, along with 2 catches for 45 yards through the air. Rounding out the running back production, Jaylen Poe recorded 42 yards and a touchdown on 6 carries, while Justin Lynch added 42 yards on 7 carries, and Gavin Williams led the team with 9 carries for 41 yards, but gave up NIU’s only turnover with a fumble. The Huskies’ offensive line is by far their most experienced group, with 2 players in their 6th year, 2 in their 5th year, and the least experienced lineman entering his 3rd year. Between the 5 of them, they have 177 games of experience and 119 starts.
NIU’s defense held Western Illinois to 298 total yards, with only 94 on the ground and 204
through the air. They surrendered only 1 touchdown all game, which came during garbage time, late in the 4th quarter against NIU’s defensive reserves. Surprisingly, NIU didn’t force a single turnover against WIU and only managed to register a single sack, partially due to the absence of defensive line anchor Raishein Thomas, who was sidelined with injury and is currently questionable for the trip to Notre Dame. Roy Williams stepped up in Thomas’ place, registering NIU’s lone lone sack along with 6 tackles and 1 TFL. While their first game was indeed impressive, it must be noted that Western Illinois is not just bad, they’re abysmal. The
Leathernecks have posted back-to-back 0-11 seasons and haven’t recorded a win since
September of 2021.
NIU’s 2023 defense was its best in over a decade, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per game with 319.5, NIU’s fewest since 2008, and 26th in points per game allowed with 21.6, NIU’s lowest since 2012. Their defensive strength leans towards the secondary, which placed top-10 in both passing yards allowed and defensive pass efficiency in 2023, allowing only 3 teams to pass for over 200 yards against them. NIU returns several key defensive contributors from 2023, most notably DE Raishein Thomas (74 TKLs, 2 Sacks), CB JaVaughn Byrd (32 TKLs, 3 INT.), DB Jashon Prophete (47 TKLs, 3 INT.) and LB Jaden Dolphin (62 TKLs, 3 Pass Deflections).
While Notre Dame is by far the biggest game of NIU’s season, the size of the stage isn’t new to them. The Huskies are used to blue chip opponents, routinely scheduling at least 2 Power-5 teams a year, including Nebraska, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Utah, and Michigan in recent years.
This scheduling tendency is actually an NIU program tradition dating back to 1983, when the
Huskies began to schedule major national programs in what they dubbed “Boneyard” games.
Instead of viewing these matchups as strictly exposure or merely financially beneficial, NIU
genuinely sees these games as challenges and even potential wins for their program. Since
then, NIU has won 18 of these “Boneyard” games, with 2 coming within the last 3 seasons
under coach Hammock. Their last top-10 “Boneyard” game was in 2022 against No. 8 Kentucky, where the Huskies lost a 1-possession game, 23-31. Their most recent “Boneyard” win came in the 2023 season opener against Boston College, who they stunned on the road in overtime, 27-24.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s win over Texas A&M was a huge statement for the Irish, but a mixed bag overall. The Irish offense went 2/12 on 3rd down conversions and sloppily committed 11 penalties for 99 yards. Riley Leonard had an impressive 1st game performance, but a quiet night statistically. He only passed for 158 yards (5.3/pass) on 18/30 passing for a 66.7 QBR. On the ground, Leonard rushed for 63 yards on 12 carries (5.3/rush), ranking second on the team in rushing yards, average, and carries. The Irish backfield was a 2 man split between Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, with Love rushing 14 times for 91 yards (6.5/rush), one of which was a 20-yard dash for a touchdown. On the other hand, Price struggled, rushing 8 times for only 44 yards (5.5/rush) with essentially all of his production coming on a 47-yard touchdown scamper. 9 different receivers caught at least 1 pass against A&M, but only 2 receivers pulled in 3 balls or more, and not one caught a TD pass. Beaux Collins led the team with 5 catches for 62 yards, followed by Jaden Greathouse with 3 grabs for 26 yards and Cooper Flanagan with 2 catches for 25 yards. No one else got over 14 yards or 2 grabs. FIU transfer Kris Mitchell had a really quiet night with only 1 catch for 12 yards, along with Marshall transfer Jayden Harrison with 2 catches for 4 yards, and Jordan Faison only caught 2 passes for 12 yards before exiting the game early with an ankle injury, sidelining him for 1-2 weeks. Unsurprisingly, Jack Kiser led the Irish defense with 8 tackles, followed by Jordan Botelho with 6 tackles, and Jaylen Sneed with 5 and a TFL. Howard Cross recorded the only sack of the night, and both Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler had 3 tackles and an interception.
As long as the Irish don’t put themselves behind the 8-ball early, NIU would be a perfect
opportunity to work out some of the kinks identified in week 1. Denbrock needs to get Leonard and his receivers on the same page, particularly downfield, and build some trust before they face tougher competition. This includes getting star tight end Mitchell Evans back in the mix with a higher snap count, as he only played 10 snaps against A&M and didn’t record a single catch. A more effective passing game will decrease the reliance on Leonard’s legs and likely make his mobility more of a weapon. As for the running game, Price needs to cobble together some better consistency so he doesn’t have to rely on a single run for all his yardage, and the offensive line just needs to make sure they don’t take a step back in their progression and build off of their solid outing against the Aggies.
If Notre Dame shows up focused, with their eyes fixed solely on the Huskies, this game should
be a straightforward, comfortable win. On the other hand, if the Irish take their foot off the pedal and overlook NIU, there’s a real possibility they come out the gate a bit flat and put themselves in a position to play catchup. Ultimately, this game is less about NIU’s ability to beat the Irish and more about Notre Dame’s power to either make this an easy win, or another ugly battle. There’s no doubt that Freeman and his staff are fully aware of Notre Dame’s week 2 struggles and will have the Irish fully prepared for this game, but at the end of the day, it comes down to the players and if they show up with the right mindset.
Even with Notre Dame’s recent struggles in week 2, the talent gap here is just too massive to
overcome, with NIU ranking 124th in 247Sports’ Team Talent Index compared to Notre Dame’s 10th rank. Despite the talent disparity, NIU won’t beat themselves. Their experience,
consistency, and discipline will keep the Huskies in the game if the Irish allow it. While there is
reason to exercise caution, a loss to NIU just isn’t realistic. Yes, Freeman dropped the Marshall game in 2022, but part of the improvement we’re expecting this year is just that - the mental fortitude to not drop the easy games.
Prediction
The hot take here would be to say the Irish win but only after suffering through their typical week 2 “hangover” but I think Marcus Freeman shows the growth fans are hoping for and avoids the characteristic stumble. Look for the Irish to handle business and put things out of reach early, possibly giving up some late points in garbage time to narrow the final score. The Irish fail to cover the spread, but leave with a double-digit win.
Notre Dame - 37
NIU - 10
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