Worst Case Scenarios: Could Notre Dame Miss out at 10-2?

Noah Wehby
1 day ago
4 min read

While Notre Dame will likely reach the playoffs for a second year in a row with a 10-2 record, there could be some disaster scenarios for the Irish that would see them on the outside looking in even after winning 10 straight games.

photo by Irish Tribune

The Notre Dame Side of Things

It is clear to Notre Dame and its fans that the Irish must finish 10-2 to have any chance of making the CFP. Before the year started, many thought it would take an 11-1 record to get in, but with Miami and Texas A&M exceeding expectations, Notre Dame has been allowed a little more wiggle room. Luckily for Marcus Freeman and his team, the remaining schedule is incredibly manageable, as they will likely be heavy favorites in every game to finish the year. With that coveted 10-2 record, Notre Dame will give itself a good chance of seeing their second straight playoff berth. That idea has started to become the national consensus among college football pundits, but it will be interesting to see what the CFP committee thinks of Notre Dame when their first rankings are announced in the coming weeks. For now, Notre Dame needs to cheer on Miami, Texas A&M, and, yes, even USC, as their success only benefits Notre Dame at this point. Most importantly, Notre Dame needs to take care of their remaining schedule, which many know, is easier said than done when it comes to Notre Dame football.

10-2's in the SEC

One potential scenario that could spell out trouble for Notre Dame's playoff chances is a cluster of 10-2 SEC teams all fighting for the remaining spots in the CFP. As it stands now, there are eight teams in the SEC with one or two losses. While a few of those teams still have to play each other, there is a chance that many of these teams will remain with one or two losses by season's end. If that happens, Notre Dame will then have to be judged with that cluster of teams, which could add some drama to the final CFP reveal. Whether it is true or not, there always seems to be some sort of SEC bias when it comes to the rankings. Some of it is deserved, as the SEC has consistently produced some of the best football teams every year. While that may be the case, it is also a possibility that the SEC this year may just consist of good teams, not great ones. This makes it tricky to rank them, as they all beat up on each other, never knowing if those are really good wins or just a bunch of good teams exchanging wins. This back and forth is exactly what Notre Dame wants to avoid. While Notre Dame has quality losses, they lack a lot of quality wins, something that SEC teams sitting at 10-2 could win a conversation with.

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Miami Misses ACC Championship

Another scenario that could hurt Notre Dame's playoff hopes is if Miami does not play for the ACC Championship. Due to their surprising loss to Louisville, Miami does not control its own destiny to the ACC Championship game. Right now, Georgia Tech and Virginia are the front-runners in the ACC and have a manageable path to finish undefeated in conference. If that happens, Miami would be left out of the championship game, meaning the ACC could get three teams into the CFP. While that does not necessarily mean Notre Dame misses out, it does take potential bids away from them. With the SEC and Big 10 likely getting three to four teams in, the spots for a CFP bid start to get slimmer and slimmer.

Chaos in the Big 12

Like the ACC, the Big 12 is shaping up in a way that could see multiple teams make it to the playoffs, which would only put Notre Dame's chances further into question. In the Big 12, there is a five-team race for a spot in the conference title game. BYU, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Houston, and Utah are still in the running, with no team having more than two losses. Thankfully for Notre Dame, a lot of these teams still have matchups against each other, so maybe the conference will figure itself out, but the Big 12 is notorious for chaos and unexpected outcomes. If by the end of the year this conference still features multiple teams with one loss, Notre Dame could have a tougher than expected chance to make the playoffs.

All in all, the likelihood that any of these scenarios will play out down the road varies. The most important thing for Notre Dame and its run to the CFP rides solely on the team. This team still has everything to play for after suffering two devastating losses to begin the year. With those losses, however, there is no margin for error. This team will have to keep playing at a high level to complete their run of 10 straight wins.

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