Do the Irish Have a Miami Problem? Analyzing Notre Dame's Current CFP Standing
- Noah Wehby
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
Coming off a dominant showing against Pitt, Notre Dame stayed put in the newest CFP rankings. Currently ranked ninth in the country, Notre Dame currently resides in a playoff spot, but is Miami's rise in the rankings cause for concern?
For weeks now, the narrative surrounding the Irish's playoff chances has been win and in. This was easy to say as Notre Dame was building their winning streak while the Hurricanes faltered, losing to both Louisville and SMU. Today, that notion for Notre Dame is fading slightly, as Miami creeps closer to the Fighting Irish in the rankings with a head-to-head matchup advantage.
In the midst of those losses, Miami appeared to be losing sight of a playoff berth. It seemed likely, at the time, to presume that they would lose again, or that the two losses to unranked teams would be enough to knock them out completely. In recent weeks, however, Miami has been able to right the ship and play their way back into contention. That could spell trouble for Notre Dame heading down the road.
Recently, the playoff race has become extremely tight, especially between the rankings of 7-15. Those seeds feature a bundle of two-loss teams all fighting for just a few spots. With two of the spots likely reserved for the ACC and American champion, it means that there is a logjam for the remaining playoff seeding. One of those spots is exactly where Notre Dame is sitting. At nine, Notre Dame still has separation from Miami, who currently sits at No. 13. Unfortunately for the Irish, their remaining opponents do not provide any opportunities to move up, as Syracuse and Stanford have a 6-14 combined record. That leaves them in a spot where nine may be their ceiling in terms of the rankings if there is not movement ahead of them. For now, this is fine for Notre Dame, but it may not last long. The CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek confirmed this dilemma for the Irish when he spoke to Rece Davis during ESPN's rankings reveal show.
"I think when you look at Notre Dame and Miami, we really compare the losses of those two teams. Miami has lost to two unranked teams; Notre Dame has lost to two teams that are ranked in our top 13."
Yurachek went on to explain that Notre Dame and Miami are not currently being compared in the same grouping of teams. This means that the head-to-head matchup between the two teams is not being used yet. If Notre Dame and Miami were to find themselves in a situation where the two were being compared, Yurachek explained how the committee would approach that as well.
"We really haven't compared those two teams, they haven't been in similar compared pools today, but Miami is creeping up into that range where they will be compared to Notre Dame, if something happens above them."
"Head-to-head will be a significant data point."
This is exactly where Notre Dame does not want to be. Miami is the only team behind them with the distinct advantage of a head-to-head win. For now, all Notre Dame and its fans can do is root for Oklahoma and Miami losses. An Oklahoma loss would not only allow Notre Dame to move up, it would also free up more room for teams like Miami to move in without knocking the Irish out. For Miami, a third loss would seal their fate in terms of missing the playoffs, and Notre Dame would no longer have to worry about Miami looking over their shoulder. With all that being said, it is still critical for Marcus Freeman and his squad that they perform well in the last two games of the season. Although they play against inferior opponents, it can serve as a final chance to prove to the committee that they are deserving of a chance to play for a National Championship.
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