Could Notre Dame's Past Finally Catch Up with the Irish? Breaking Down the Latest CFP Rankings
- Noah Wehby
- 8 hours ago
- 4 min read
The College Football Committee has released the newest installment of the CFP rankings just days before the conference championships are set to be played and Selection Sunday. Notre Dame saw itself drop one spot to No. 10, prompting many to consider a reality where Notre Dame is left out. Here, we'll break down the rankings and the possible results that see Notre Dame making it or being left out of the field.
First, let's break down the most recent rankings where Notre Dame was jumped by Alabama. This may be one of the controversial parts of the rankings regarding Notre Dame. In this past weekend of play, Notre Dame, albeit sloppily, dominated Stanford in a 49-20 rout. On the other hand, Alabama squandered an early lead and needed a 4th and goal touchdown to take a late lead against Auburn. Strangely, the committee chairman referenced that conversion as a positive for the Crimson Tide, even one that may have decided the Notre Dame-Alabama argument. Yes, that play was a crowning moment for Alabama and one that sealed their chance to play for an SEC championship, but it is also important to remember that Auburn is only a five-win team. Should Alabama have even been in that situation? One other important factor to explain Notre Dame's fall in the rankings is the Texas A&M loss. Now, the committee never mentioned this, but the Aggies' drop in the rankings likely played a part in Notre Dame's decline.
So, with Notre Dame not participating in a conference championship, they will act as bystanders as the final games before Selection Sunday unfold. It is safe to say that Notre Dame no longer controls its own destiny to the playoffs, so the Irish will be looking for some help on Saturday.
First, Notre Dame absolutely needs Texas Tech to take care of BYU. If not, it seems almost certain that it would mean the end of Notre Dame's playoff hopes. Right now, BYU sits on the outside looking in at No. 11, but with a Big 12 championship win, they would jump the Fighting Irish. Texas Tech, even with a loss, would remain in, effectively pushing Notre Dame out of the final spot in the playoffs. If Texas Tech wins, the door stays open for Notre Dame to make it to the CFP. Now, this is not a certainty, but it is the only way for Notre Dame to remain in the hunt. That scenario would look something like a BYU loss either drops them or keeps them at No. 11. Either way, Notre Dame stays put at No. 10, and as long as nobody jumps them, they will safely be in the playoffs.
Although the Texas Tech-BYU game is a must for the Irish, it is not the only outcome they need to keep their eyes on. The Georgia-Alabama SEC championship matchup is another game that could impact Notre Dame's seeding. It is still up for debate whether this outcome will officially knock Notre Dame out, but it is important either way. With a Georgia win, Alabama may not drop out of the playoffs, but it could put them behind Notre Dame, giving the Irish some cushion from a side-by-side ranking to Miami. That means the bigger the Georgia win, the better for Notre Dame. If the game is close, the committee may feel inclined to keep Alabama at No. 9, as they would not want to punish the Crimson Tide for playing in the SEC championship game.
The last aspect of all of this is, of course, Miami. These two teams have been the talk of college football ever since the first CFP rankings came out. It is only fitting that it will come down to the final week. Like Notre Dame, Miami will also not be playing this weekend, meaning if there is any change, it will purely come from the perception the committee has of these two teams. Notre Dame and its fans can hold on to the idea that it appears the committee has already made up its mind on the two. The committee has ranked Notre Dame ahead of Miami for weeks now, so on a week that neither team plays, it would be hard to imagine anything changes. With that being said, it is not out of the question, however. This would really only be a scenario with a BYU loss. As stated earlier, a BYU loss could drop them out of the No. 11 spot, allowing Miami to move up a spot next to Notre Dame. If that is the case, both teams could be fighting over the No. 10 seed. The committee chairman has already revealed that Notre Dame and Miami have already been directly compared, with Notre Dame winning that debate. The question is, would that answer change if they were directly next to each other in the rankings? It could be that the committee did not use the head-to-head matchup in previous rankings because they could not justify Miami jumping other teams to pass Notre Dame. In this scenario, there would be no other team to jump, which could be all the committee needs to finally rank Miami ahead of the Irish.
Of course, these are all hypotheticals. The only thing Marcus Freeman, his team, and the fans can do now is wait and see how it all unfolds. As a smaller note, Notre Dame can also root for Boise State to win its conference championship to boost the Irish's strength of schedule. Other than that, Irish fans are Texas Tech and Georgia fans for the upcoming weekend to ensure the best odds for Notre Dame to reach the playoffs and continue playing for a National Championship.
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