From Breakout to Blueprint: Notre Dame’s 2025 Road Map

How CJ Carr, Mike Denbrock, and Chris Ash turn last year’s surge into a season-long plan for January. Here's our 2025 Notre Dame football preview.

Art by The Irish Tribune

2024 proved the program’s ceiling; 2025 tests how repeatable it is. With CJ Carr stepping into QB1, Mike Denbrock’s offense must create layups early and explosives on schedule, while Chris Ash’s first season is judged by one metric: fewer big plays allowed. The opener at Miami and a primetime tilt with Texas A&M will grade the Irish before mid-September, and in a 12-team playoff, those games shape not just entry but seed. If Carr ramps quickly and the defense travels, Notre Dame’s path isn’t hypothetical. It’s paved.

Notre Dame Football Preview 2025

At-A-Glance

• Preseason rank: No.6

• Head coach / Year: Marcus Freeman: Year 4

• OC: Mike Denbrock: Year 2

• DC: Chris Ash: Year 1

• 2024 finish: (14-2)

• Returning production: (Offense: 5) / (Defense: 6)

• Transfers: (In: 8) / (Out: 14)

Notre Dame enters 2025 with a title-caliber floor and the same high-leverage question: how fast can a first-year starter settle in while a new DC keeps the explosive plays capped? If the Irish survive the front-loaded grind, January is on the table.

Why this year is different

• Staff & identity: Denbrock’s balanced, TE-friendly pro-spread returns; Ash streamlines the defense (press-match rules, pro tackling emphasis).

• QB plan: Scripted layups early for CJ Carr (RPO/glance, play-action seams), then build to 3–4 vertical shots per half by mid-season.

• Roster shape: Trenches travel; portal adds at WR/TE raise the ceiling; edge-rotation depth and special teams floor are the watch-items.

Schedule

The Irish open on the road in primetime at No. 10 Miami. A perfectly timed Week 2 bye sets up another national showcase at home against No. 19 Texas A&M. From there, it’s six straight without a break: a trip to Arkansas, a visit from No. 25 Boise State (last year’s G5 CFP entrant), and the rivalry game with USC under the lights. The second bye doesn’t arrive until late October, after USC, teeing up a five-game November sprint.

November eases a bit on paper—but it’s the classic “don’t blink” stretch. Notre Dame travels to Boston College, hosts Navy, heads to Pittsburgh, celebrates Senior Day against Steve Angeli’s Syracuse, then closes the year at Stanford. It’s seven true home games and five road games overall; only two road trips in the first half, then three of the last five away from home. Handle the front-loaded grind, and the Playoff math gets friendly. Slip late, and résumé optics get messy.

The biggest hurdles are obvious: the opener at Miami (heat, noise, veteran roster) and the roster-talent test against A&M after the early bye. If Notre Dame drops one there, the slate sets up for a long, clean run into Selection Sunday. Win both, and a top-four seed is firmly in play.

Schedule Shape

• Coin Flips (45–55%) — Miami, Texas A&M, USC

• Lean Wins (60–70%) —Arkansas, Boise State, Pitt, Syracuse

• Should-Wins (75%+) — Purdue, NC State, BC, Navy, Stanford

Unit Breakdowns

QB — CJ Carr & the plan

CJ’s baseline is accuracy and rhythm: quick feet, clean mechanics, and hitting the throw that’s there. His upside shows when play-action opens the field — deep crossers, posts, and seams to the tight ends. In September, expect the staff to keep things friendly: lots of motion, tighter formations to help vs press, simple read-and-rip concepts, a few rollouts, and easy checkdowns to Eli Raridon, Ty Washington, and the backs. Coaching ask: no hero ball. Take the layups, let the big plays come from the design.

RB / OL — identity & tells

The backs — Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, with Gi’Bran Payne as the steady third — give you efficiency plus burst. The run game is downhill first (power/counter), with some pulls to the edge and enough variety to keep defenses honest. In short yardage you’ll see extra tight ends and tighter splits to move people. In pass protection, they’ll help the tackles with tight ends chipping and keep a back in now and then against scary edge rushers. Up front the core five is LT Anthonie Knapp, LG Billy Schrauth, C Ashton Craig, RG Guerby Lambert, RT Aamil Wagner (with Styles Prescod/Sullivan Abshire ready). When defenses start jumping the run, the answer is play-action shots to the seam and backside digs.

WR / TE — roles & man answers

On the outside, Malachi Fields is your big “X” who wins back-shoulders and glances. Inside, Will Pauling is the chain-mover and Jaden Greathouse punishes soft zones. Jordan Faison brings speed and motion stress, with Micah Gilbert and KK Smith rotating in. Tight ends Eli Raridon and Ty Washington are featured — the seam, the over route, and the little leaks off run looks. Versus man coverage, expect bunches, rubs, and switch releases to free guys without asking receivers to win perfect one-on-ones every snap.

DL / LB — rush, fits, subs

Edges Boubacar Traoré and Joshua Burnham bring length; Junior Tuihalamaka/Jordan Botelho can give heavier looks. Inside, it’s a wave of Jason Onye, Gabriel Rubio, Donovan Hinish, with portal help from Jared Dawson and Elijah Hughes. The pass-rush plan is mostly four rushers with plenty of twists and movement, plus a well-timed extra rusher on obvious passing downs. Against the run, set a firm edge, spill the ball to help, and tackle clean. At linebacker, think Drayk Bowen and Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa in the middle, Jaylen Sneed/Jaiden Ausberry as rangy complements (with Madden Faraimo depth). Nickel is the default vs three-wide; on long yardage, they’ll bring in an extra DB and a hybrid to sit on crossing routes.

DB — coverage & leverage

Christian Gray and Leonard Moore start outside; Alabama transfer DeVonta Smith is the nickel, which in this defense is basically a full-time starter. Safeties Adon Shuler and Jalen Stroman give you range and physical tackling. Expect a healthy mix of man and zone with late safety rotations to muddy the QB’s picture. Priorities are simple: keep a lid on the deep ball, contest the quick stuff, communicate everything, and tackle in space. When they do go man, one safety will often lurk underneath to jump crossers.

ST — kicking, returns, hidden yards

Noah Burnette handles field goals/PATs, Marcello Diomede kickoffs, James Rendell punts, Joseph Vinci snaps, Tyler Buchner holds. The goal: be automatic inside ~45 yards and have a clear “go-for-it or kick” line beyond that. On kickoffs, aim for touchbacks or high, hang-time balls the coverage team can crush. Punts are directional — win net yardage, not just distance. In the return game, take the freebies (fair catch when it’s smart) and only green-light returns with space. The weekly target: +40 to +60 hidden yards from clean special teams, one field-flipping punt, and no return penalties.

Three Swing Stats

 

• Early-down success rate (Offense): Ceiling if ≥ 50%; danger if ≤ 44%.Why: keeps Carr in scriptable downs, lets PA live.

• Explosive-pass rate allowed (15+ yd):Top-20 target ≤ 11%; danger ≥ 14%.Why: Ash’s philosophy is built on capping chunks.

• Red-zone TD rate (offense/defense): O ≥ 67%+; D ≤ 52%.Why: November and CFP games are decided by 7s vs 3s.

Notre Dame Injuries

Severity key:

• Minimal = week-to-week / limited early; plausible near-term return

• Moderate = multi-week / ramp-up needed when cleared

Out for the Miami game

Out for the season

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Team-By-Team Breakdown

Sun, Aug 31 — at Miami (FL) | 7:30 PM, ABC

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL 

Staff/QB: Mario Cristobal; OC Shannon Dawson; DC Corey Hetherman | QB Carson Beck (experienced, calm)

Strengths: Speed everywhere and a front four that can wreck drives. With Beck, they’re steady on third downs and dangerous on deep play-action throws. 

Weaknesses: New DC + new pieces = early communication tests; finishing drives has been hot-and-cold. 

Players to watch: QB Carson Beck, EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., LT Francis Mauigoa. 

Why it matters to ND: Keep CJ Carr upright and patient, then punish aggressive safeties with tight-end seams. Defensively, make Miami string long drives—no freebies over the top. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

Even on the road, ND’s defense should keep Miami’s deep shots in front and force long drives. If Carr stays mistake-free and the run game controls tempo, a late stop or field goal is enough to leave Hard Rock with a close win.

Sat, Sep 13 — vs Texas A&M | 7:30 PM, NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Mike Elko; OC Collin Klein; DC Jay Bateman | QB Marcel Reed (dual-threat)

Strengths: Fast defense that mixes looks well; QB run game can tilt short yardage. 

Weaknesses: Passing consistency comes and goes; penalties can be drive-killers. 

Players to watch: QB Marcel Reed, S Bryce Anderson, RB Le’Veon Moss. 

Why it matters to ND: Stay ahead of the sticks and force Reed to win from the pocket; tight ends and balance can settle it at home. 

Prediction — Texas A&M win. 

A&M’s disguise and QB legs create just enough chaos in Carr’s second start. One turnover or short field swings a primetime game that’s basically 50/50.

Sat, Sep 20 — vs Purdue | 3:30 PM, NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Barry Odom; OC Josh Henson; DC Mike Scherer | QB Ryan Browne (big arm)

Strengths: Scrappy defense that moves up front; reliable back in Devin Mockobee. 

Weaknesses: Offense is mid-rebuild; depth across the lines still maturing. 

Players to watch: RB Devin Mockobee, WR De’Nylon Morrissette (transfer), DE CJ Madden (transfer). 

Why it matters to ND: Play clean and physical—ND’s depth should show after halftime. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

At home, ND has a clear edge on the lines and more ways to score. Purdue can hang for a half, but the Irish separate with tight-end usage and a fourth-quarter run game.

Sat, Sep 27 — at Arkansas | 12:00 PM, ABC 

Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR 

Staff/QB: Sam Pittman; OC Bobby Petrino; DC Travis Williams | QB Taylen Green (size + speed)

Strengths: Tough run game and a quarterback who can house it with his legs; Petrino scripts explosive shots. 

Weaknesses: Pass protection leaks; defense gambles and surrenders chunks. 

Players to watch: QB Taylen Green, WR Isaiah Sategna, LB Jaheim Thomas. 

Why it matters to ND: Don’t let the crowd or QB legs snowball—tackle well, win field position, and take your shots on their corners. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

Arkansas will land a big play, but if ND limits QB scrambles and wins special teams, the Irish grind out a one-score road result.

Sat, Oct 4 — vs Boise State | 3:30 PM, NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Spencer Danielson; OC Bush Hamdan; DC Erik Chinander | QB Maddux Madsen (gutsy distributor)

Strengths: Cohesive, well-coached outfit; they stay on schedule and hit timely crossers. 

Weaknesses: Size/length mismatch outside vs elite teams; can be worn down by power run games. 

Players to watch: QB Maddux Madsen, slot WR playmaker, LB Andrew Simpson. 

Why it matters to ND: Lean on the OL and make them tackle for four quarters; avoid turnovers and it tilts Irish. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

Boise scraps, but ND’s physical run game and a couple of play-action shots create breathing room by the fourth.

Sat, Oct 11 — vs NC State | 3:30 PM, Peacock (exclusive)

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Dave Doeren; OC Kurt Roper; DC D.J. Eliot | QB CJ Bailey (big arm)

Strengths: Physical front seven; comfortable in games played in the 20s. 

Weaknesses: Explosive plays on offense come in spurts; new-OC timing early. 

Players to watch: QB CJ Bailey; WR Noah Rogers; top off-ball LB Caden Fordham.

Why it matters to ND: Stay patient, steal third downs with the slot/TE, and avoid short fields; they’re built to hang around. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

State’s defense will get stops, but ND’s balance and red-zone edge push it out of reach in the second half.

Sat, Oct 18 — vs USC | 7:30 PM, NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Lincoln Riley; OC Luke Huard; DC D’Anton Lynn | QB Jayden Maiava (creative, confident)

Strengths: Still dangerous on offense—great spacing and speed at receiver. Lynn has the defense trending up with better tackling and structure. 

Weaknesses: Can be pushed around by committed run games; new QB chemistry under lights. 

Players to watch: QB Jayden Maiava, WR Zachariah Branch, DE Anthony Lucas. 

Why it matters to ND: Control the game with the run and hit a couple of timely shots; on defense, keep everything in front and make USC finish drives. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

South Bend at night favors ND’s physicality. If the Irish cap USC’s explosives, one or two Carr throws decide it late.

Sat, Nov 1 — at Boston College | TBA 

Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA 

Staff/QB: Bill O’Brien; OC Will Lawing; DC Tim Lewis | QB Dylan Lonergan (steady)

Strengths: Pro-style offense that grinds clock and sets up play-action; buttoned-up situationally. 

Weaknesses: Depth and top-end speed lag behind top-10 programs. 

Players to watch: QB Dylan Lonergan, WR Lewis Bond, RB Kye Robichaux. 

Why it matters to ND: Avoid turnovers and red-zone stalls—BC wants ugly and close. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

ND’s size and depth wear down BC over 60 minutes; a couple of red-zone touchdowns instead of field goals widen the gap.

Sat, Nov 8 — vs Navy | 7:30 PM, NBC/Peacock 

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Brian Newberry; OC Drew Cronic; DC P.J. Volker | QB Blake Horvath (option keeper)

Strengths: Disciplined, low-mistake football that shortens the game and tests your tackling. 

Weaknesses: Less explosive talent; two-score deficits are tough to chase. 

Players to watch: QB Blake Horvath; fullback (B-back) Alex Tecza; slot-back Eli Heidenreich.

Why it matters to ND: Assignment football for 60 minutes; get an early lead and don’t hand them extra possessions. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

Take care of the ball, tackle the perimeter, and the Irish pull away once Navy is forced to throw.

Sat, Nov 15 — at Pittsburgh | TBA 

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA 

Staff/QB: Pat Narduzzi; OC Kade Bell; DC Randy Bates | QB Eli Holstein (big arm)

Strengths: Classic Pitt DNA—tough defensive front; contested-catch receivers; field-position fights. 

Weaknesses: Protection can wobble; offense cools if explosives aren’t there. 

Players to watch: QB Eli Holstein; boundary WR Kenny Johnson; DT Sean FitzSimmons. 

Why it matters to ND: Win third down on both sides and stay clean on special teams—Acrisure is where weird things happen. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

Grind game. If ND avoids the one big mistake and flips the field a couple times, they’re the steadier offense down the stretch.

Sat, Nov 22 — vs Syracuse | 3:30 PM, NBC/Peacock

Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN 

Staff/QB: Fran Brown; OC Jeff Nixon; DC Elijah Robinson | QB Steve Angeli (accurate, quick-trigger)

Strengths: QB-friendly offense with screens and play-action; rising energy/talent floor. 

Weaknesses: Depth is still building; secondary can be stressed by size. 

Players to watch: QB Steve Angeli, RB LeQuint Allen, DL Denis Jaquez Jr. 

Why it matters to ND: Match their early juice, then lean on the run and tight ends—if ND avoids turnovers, talent separates. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win.

 Angeli will move it in rhythm, but ND’s lines and red-zone edge make this a two-score day.

Sat, Nov 29 — at Stanford | TBA 

Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA 

Staff/QB: Frank Reich (interim); staff reshuffled on defense | QB Ben Gulbranson (steady)

Strengths: Smart, methodical offense that leans on play-action and tight ends; they’ll try to slow the game. 

Weaknesses: Roster depth and team speed still catching up; explosive plays are scarce. 

Players to watch: QB Ben Gulbranson; lead TE Sam Roush; defensive tone-setter LB Matt Rose

Why it matters to ND: Start fast, pound the run, don’t give short fields—the longer this stays close, the trickier it gets. 

Prediction — Notre Dame win. 

ND’s ground game and defense control it wire-to-wire; businesslike finish for the Legends Trophy.

Season call: 11–1 regular season (only loss vs Texas A&M).

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Season Prediction

Gone are the Brian Kelly-era wobbles. This roster and staff have a high floor; the ceiling hinges on a first-year QB finding rhythm and Ash’s defense shrinking the explosives. Most likely, Notre Dame splits the first two showcase games, stacks wins through October, and manages November without a late stumble.

Postseason vibe: CFP berth with a semifinal ceiling unless the passing game levels up by December.

Floor / Most Likely / Ceiling

• Ceiling: 12–0 — Carr hits A-minus by mid-October; ST adds points; turnovers stay green.

• Most likely: 11–1 — split Miami/A&M, hold serve at home, steal one tight roadie.

• Floor: 10–2 — QB onboarding drags + a late special-teams leak flips a November game.

Win-total Math

• Coin Flips (45–55%) — Miami, Texas A&M, USC

• Lean Wins (60–70%) — Arkansas, Boise State, Pitt, Syracuse

• Should-Wins (75%+) — Purdue, NC State, BC, Navy, Stanford 

• Projection: [11-1 ]

What a playoff run looks like

• QB arc: protected to proactive; third-down answers travel in November.

• Explosives vs elite DBs: ~3 successful shots/game (boundary isolations + TE seams).

• Defense vs top-15 offenses: cap posts/go’s; force FGs; 3 sacks/turnovers per game.

• Hidden yards: net +40–60 via punts, kickoffs, return choices.

New CFP Format

• Field: 12 teams - 5 highest-ranked conference champs (auto bids) + 7 at-large.

• Byes: Seeds 1–4 (by ranking) get first-round byes — independents like ND are eligible.

• First round: Seeds 5–12 play on-campus at the higher seed (12@5, 11@6, 10@7, 9@8).

• Bracket: Fixed after Round 1 (no reseeding); quarterfinals/semis in New Year’s Six bowls.

How does Notre Dame finish the regular season?

• 12-0
• 11-1
• 10-2
• 9-3 (or worse)

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