Ending the Notre Dame-Miami Debate

Liam Gaudet
9 hours ago
4 min read

For the fourth week in a row, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are ranked ahead of the Miami Hurricanes despite having the same number of losses, and Miami holding the head-to-head advantage after beating Notre Dame at home by three in week 1. With Miami fans and media pundits, including the official ACC X account, clamoring for justice, now would be a good time to really dive into this argument. Who deserves to be on top?

Photo via Miami Athletics

Acknowledging the Obvious

Let's start here: Yes, Miami emerged victorious over the Irish at home in week 1 of the college football season. This is a win that should bolster Miami's resume. This is a loss that should hurt Notre Dame. Both of these things are true. The other truth, however, is that a college football season is equal to the sum of its parts and is not played in the vacuum of a single game. And my goal is to convey, rather objectively, that the sum of data points for both of these teams' seasons points to an obvious answer.

Peak of Play Timing

Given the choice, would you rather play your best football at the beginning of the year, looking like the team to beat, before eventually trailing off? Or, would you rather start slow before eventually hitting your stride at the right time, and look like one of the best football teams come playoff selection? Without even mentioning the quality of losses, there shouldn't be an ounce of hesitation in who anyone would choose given the scenario. And funnily enough, this is the exact same scenario both Miami and Notre Dame found themselves in a year ago. The Irish dropped an inexplicable contest to Northern Illinois at the beginning of the season, before rattling off 10-straight victories on the road to a National Championship appearance. Miami, led by Heisman candidate Cam Ward, went scorched earth to start the year, starting 9-0 before dropping two of their last three games to middle-of-the-road ACC opponents, causing them to miss both the playoff and the ACC championship game. Sound familiar? No Miami fans were up in arms about Notre Dame at that point in the season last year. For the second year in a row, Miami has proven that it can't handle success, and Notre Dame has proven that it can elevate in the face of elimination. Notre Dame is trending up at the right time. Miami, once again, started to trend down at the wrong time.

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Statistical Considerations

Here, a table which conveys the teams' statistical comparisons to date is shown. Since the committee likely uses an algorithm that combines plenty of these metrics to create a baseline for their rankings, it isn't hard to see why they have Notre Dame in front of Miami.

In a majority of advanced metrics sourced directly from ESPN, Notre Dame trumps Miami. The analytics point to a team that not only has had a more difficult schedule, but one that has managed it better up until this point in time. Notre Dame's three-point loss to the Hurricanes is a single data point that doesn't tell the whole story - much like Notre Dame's early-season loss to NIU did not mean that by December, Notre Dame wasn't deserving or good enough. The loss is simply that: a data point to be lumped in with many others to be considered while evaluating a team's true resume.

The Losses

Miami's "gotcha" moment when it comes to comparing losses is that Notre Dame lost to Miami, so the other losses shouldn't matter. That is flawed logic that doesn't hold much water this late into the season. The transitive property doesn't exist in college football, and by losing games they shouldn't have, Miami was a harbinger of its own demise. Notre Dame, which has a greater strength of schedule, lost two games to ranked teams by a combined four points at the beginning of the season. Miami, with an objectively weaker schedule, lost two games to far inferior teams by a combined nine points. I hate to keep mentioning the idea of data points, but that is how the committee and algorithms alike compare the teams. Miami's "poor" data points are far more damaging to their resume than Notre Dame's. Instead of being angry about Notre Dame, they should direct that frustration inward at their program, which has proven again and again that it can't build momentum and will sleepwalk once it hits its peak, leading to devastating losses that derail the season.

By this point in the season, both of these teams are far removed from who they were when they faced off in week one, backed by both metrics and the eye test. And now with Miami and Notre Dame both in the same "comparative pool", it's clear that the committee and algorithms favor this Irish, and it's not a coincidence. One team is trending up, with incredible metrics and better data points. The other hit a slump at the top, with worse metrics and far worse data points.

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