Notre Dame Set for a Big Saturday: Breaking Down NC State
- Brenden Duffy
- Oct 9
- 13 min read
Photo via NC State Athletics
On Saturday afternoon, the 16th-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2) hosts the NC State Wolfpack (4-2). The Irish look to keep their CFP hopes alive amidst the chaos of last weekend. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack would love to prove they are back on track, following two early ACC losses, with a big-time road win.
NC State Results (4-2):
24-17 vs East Carolina (W)
35-31 vs Virginia (W)
34-24 at Wake Forest (W)
33-45 at Duke (L)
21-23 vs Virginia Tech (L)
56-10 vs Campbell (W)
It appears NC State and Head Coach Dave Doeren have put last season’s 6-7 finish behind them. This marked the worst record for the program since 2019. Doeren, the Wolfpack’s all-time winningest coach, has been with the program since 2013 as HC. Before taking over in Raleigh, Doeren spent time as Wisconsin’s Defensive Coordinator and Northern Illinois’ head coach.
The defensive-minded HC made changes to the offense this past offseason, when he promoted Kurt Roper to replace Robert Anae at Offensive Coordinator. Roper has an extensive coaching history that dates back as a GA at Tennessee during the Volunteers’ 1998 BCS National Championship season. Since then, he has spent time as a QB coach within various programs, including Ole Miss, Duke, and South Carolina. Roper has split time as a QB and RB coach since arriving at NC State in 2019. This season, Roper’s first as NC State’s OC, the offense has been solid, featuring some explosive plays, led by talented passer CJ Bailey. See offensive team stats below with their respective national ranking:
33.8 points per game (tied-45th)
447.7 total yards per game (31st)
282.3 pass yards per game (26th)
6 pass plays of 40 or more yards (tied-13th)
165.33 rush yards per game (62nd)
3 rush plays of 50 or more yards (tied-6th)
Offensive Personnel:
Quarterbacks:
CJ Bailey - NC State’s sophomore gunslinger stands at 6-6 and 213 pounds. Bailey is completing 74.6% of his throws for 1,660 yards and 13 touchdowns with four interceptions. Here is where the QB ranks amongst the rest of the country:
289.7 total yards per game (19th among FBS players)
276.7 passing yards per game (17th)
168.84 passer rating (14th)
13 passing TDs (tied-8th)
74.6% completion percentage (tied-4th)
During the loss at Duke, Bailey threw for a season-high 364 yards while going 29/39 with two touchdowns. However, the sophomore did throw a season-high three interceptions on the road. Last week, he threw a season-high four touchdowns against Campbell while completing 20/23 attempts for 337 yards and no turnovers. An interesting note on NC State is that they are 4-0 when Bailey takes one or fewer sacks compared to 0-2 when he takes two or more. Overall, Bailey is a good passer. He is 13/23 on throws over 20 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. A key for the Irish defense will be to apply pressure on the QB, as all four of his interceptions have come under duress.
On the ground, Bailey is an average scrambler with 40 carries for 78 yards and three touchdowns. His lost fumble at Duke marked his fourth turnover of the game. He rushed for a season-high 44 yards and two touchdowns on six carries against Virginia. Bailey can be tough to bring down with his size, and that is shown with nine missed tackles forced and seven carries of 10 or more yards.
Others to watch: Will Wilson - has three goal-line touchdowns this season
Running Backs:
Hollywood Smothers - NC State’s premier RB is a 5-11, 195-pound redshirt sophomore. This season, Smothers has rushed for 693 yards and five touchdowns on 100 carries. He has finished with over 100 yards in four of his six games this year. Here is where the sophomore ranks nationally among FBS rushers:
115.5 yards per game (6th)
5 carries of 40 or more yards (tied-1st)
3 carries of 50 or more yards (tied-3rd)
Smothers rushed for a season-high 164 yards at Wake Forest on 24 carries. He recorded a season-high two touchdowns against Virginia when he ran for 140 yards on 17 carries. Last week, the sophomore tallied 123 yards, including a 59-yard touchdown, on just four touches against Campbell. Smothers is a good, strong runner averaging a nice 6.9 yards per carry, including 4.72 yards after contact, with 32 missed tackles forced and no fumbles. He has 20 carries of 10 or more yards, and notably, 25% of his carries go outside the LT.
Smothers also serves as a good receiving back, with 21 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown through the air. He recorded a season-high five catches and 41 yards in the loss at Duke. Last week, the sophomore finished with two catches for 30 yards, including a 16-yard score. A reliable short-yardage option, Smothers has no drops across 22 targets and averages 8.1 yards after the catch per reception. As a blocker, he struggles against the pass rush but actually serves as a solid lead on Bailey’s designed scrambles.
Others to watch: Jayden Scott
Receivers:
Terrell Anderson - Bailey’s top wideout is the 6-2, 192-pound sophomore. Anderson has 388 yards (leads team) and three touchdowns across 21 receptions this season. Here is where the right-side WR ranks among FBS pass-catchers:
64.7 receiving yards per game (83rd)
18.48 yards per reception (37th)
4 receptions of 30 or more yards (tied-21st)
Anderson recorded season-highs at Duke when he tallied six catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard screen pass which he took to the house. Additionally, the sophomore has at least two catches in each game this year. The talented WR shifts to the slot about 25% of the time. He has just one drop on 26 targets and can beat defenses in a variety of ways, including over the top. Anderson struggles as a run blocker.
Keenan Jackson - The second of this trio of starting sophomore receivers is NC State’s slot-man. Jackson has 17 catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns this season. The 6-3 weapon has at least one reception in each game, including a season-high five receptions against Virginia Tech, where he finished with 35 yards, including a 13-yard score. Jackson recorded a season-high 46 yards at Wake Forest on three receptions, including a 12-yard touchdown. The sophomore is a solid receiver with a team-high two drops across 24 targets. He serves best as a short-yardage, yard-after-catch option. Jackson’s run-blocking is solid.
Noah Rogers - Opposite of Anderson out wide, is the 6-2, 197-pound redshirt sophomore. Rogers has 15 receptions for 235 yards and one touchdown entering this weekend. He has at least one catch in each game, including a season-high of four receptions at Wake Forest when he finished with 52 yards. Rogers recorded a season-high 62 yards last week on three catches. Overall, the redshirt sophomore is a good, reliable receiver with one drop on 20 targets and averages 15.7 yards per reception. While not as dangerous as Anderson, Rogers offers a similar skillset as he is 4/5 on contested catch attempts. His run-blocking is okay for a wideout.
Wesley Grimes - This 6-2 senior usually comes off the bench but has played a significant role in the offense halfway through the season. Grimes has 243 yards and a touchdown on 14 catches in five games played (out at Duke). His 17.36 yards per reception are tied 62nd among qualifying FBS pass-catchers. The senior has at least two catches in each game played, and has seven receptions for 188 yards and a score across 12 targets of 10 or more yards. Grimes set season-highs against East Carolina when he finished with 121 yards and a touchdown on just four catches in the win. Bailey’s favorite deep target has no drops across 20 targets and is a solid run-blocker.
Others to watch: Teddy Hoffman, Ethan Dowdy, Ashton Locklear
Tight Ends:
Justin Joly - Bailey’s top target this season is the 6-3 senior receiving tight end. Joly’s 28 receptions lead the team as he has garnered 256 yards and three touchdowns. His 4.7 receptions per game are tied-74th among qualifying FBS pass-catchers, and he has hauled in at least four catches in each game. Joly recorded a season-high six receptions against Virginia Tech, which he took for 60 yards. He set a season-high of 63 yards at Duke across five receptions. Then, at Wake Forest, he set a season-high two touchdowns on four receptions for 22 yards. Obviously, the 263-pounder is a talented receiving TE. 47.8% of his pass snaps come out of the slot as a safe, short-yardage option. He has just one drop across 39 targets and has been solid as a run-blocker so far this year.
Others to watch: Cody Hardy, Dante Daniels
Offensive Line:
LT Jacarrius Peak, LG Anthony Carter Jr., C Jalen Grant, RG Spike Sowells Jr., RT Teague Andersen - This group has, overall, been solid this season. Their pass-block is stronger than their run-block. LT Peak is the best pass-blocker of the group, setting up a potential challenge for Notre Dame’s premier pass-rusher, Boubacar Traore. RT Andersen has allowed the most pressures on this line, so the Irish should attack him. Both OGs really struggle with the run. RG Sowells Jr deserves a bit of leeway as he is a true freshman who earned his first start just two weeks ago. But again, this could be another facet that the Irish defense would like to expose.
Defensive Personnel:
NC State’s defensive brain trust is made up of HC Doeren and first-year Wolfpack Defensive Coordinator, D.J. Eliot. Doeren had some work to do this past offseason after his top two defensive assistants earned promotions at new programs. Former DC/LB Coach Tony Gibson is now the HC at Marshall, and former Nickels Coach Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay returned to his alma mater, Sam Houston, to be the DC.
Enter D.J. Eliot. Like Doeren, Eliot has a long coaching history that includes various roles and stops throughout the years since being a GA at Wyoming in 1999. Most notably, Eliot has served as DC at Kentucky, Colorado, Kansas, and Temple. Last year, he was a senior analyst at Baylor before getting the call from Doeren.
Unfortunately, Eliot’s first year in Raleigh has been far from ideal. He has not had any help from a health standpoint, with four key defenders out last week and three DBs already ruled out with season-ending injuries. I noted this earlier in the week in my keys to the game for the Irish to attack. Keep an eye on any Wolfpack injury reports this week.
Starting up front, NC State’s lack of a pass rush is apparent with just nine sacks on the year, with 1.5 per game tied-107th among FBS teams in this stat. In the back, the secondary has failed to make needed plays. Their 3.5 passes defended per game are tied-91st among FBS defenses, and 0.5 interceptions per game are tied-100th. To add on to the lack of turnovers, this group has forced just one fumble and has failed to recover any. Here is where the defense ranks nationally:
25 points per game allowed (tied-77th)
375 total yards per game allowed (77th)
131.83 rush yards per game allowed (57th)
3 carries of 60 or more yards allowed (1st)
243.2 pass yards per game allowed (99th)
44.09% 3rd-down conversion rate allowed (113th)
Interior Line:
Travali Price - The smaller of the two starting interior linemen is the 6-4, 285-pound NC State graduate. Price has 10 tackles, three for a loss, and 1.5 sacks this season. He recorded a season-high three tackles against East Carolina and at Duke. He picked up his sack in the win at Wake Forest. Price is a solid, all-around DT with just one missed tackle on the year. He has seven pressures on 145 pass rush attempts and four stops with no misses against the run.
Brandon Cleveland - In my opinion, the better of the two DTs is the 6-4, 315-pound senior. Cleveland has 14 tackles, four for a loss, and one sack this year. He tallied a season-best five tackles and a sack in the loss at Duke. The senior has nine pressures, including two QB hits, across 121 pass rushes. Against the run, he has been really good with nine stops and just two missed tackles.
Others to watch: Isaiah Shirley (had a pick-six vs Wake Forest), Josiah Victor, Chazz Wallace
Edge Rushers:
Sabastian Harsh - The first of two graduate transfer edge rushers is the 6-3, 263-pounder from Wyoming. This season, Harsh has 21 tackles, six for a loss, 2.5 sacks, and two pass breakups. He enters this weekend leading the team in tackles for loss and sacks. His one tackle for loss per game is tied-75th among FBS defenders. Harsh had a season-high seven tackles with a pass breakup against East Carolina. Across the past two weeks, the former Cowboy has tallied seven tackles, 2.5 sacks, and a pass breakup. He does have four missed tackles this season, with three coming against the run. In general, Harsh is an all-around good edge rusher who offers versatility. His pass rush has been impressive as he leads the team with 17 QB pressures across 161 pass rush attempts. He has come up with six stops against the run, in addition to the three misses previously mentioned. The edge rusher has dropped into coverage eight times this season and allowed an 11-yard touchdown on his only target.
Cian Slone - Another grad-transfer edge defender from the Mountain West, Slone came over from Utah State this offseason. The 6-4, 252-pound OLB has 28 tackles, four for a loss, one sack, an interception, and a pass breakup this season. He has at least two tackles in each game, including a season-high of seven against East Carolina and Virginia Tech. In the matchup with the Hokies, Slone added a sack but also finished with a season-high three missed tackles in the contest. The former Aggie came up huge against Virginia when he racked up four tackles and hauled in the game-saving interception. Last week, Slone had five tackles and a pass breakup against Campbell. Overall, he is a pretty good defender, but his six missed tackles are an issue. You can find Slone rushing the passer on nearly 80% of pass plays. He has recorded 15 pressures, including a team-high four QB hits, across 134 pass rushes. Against the run, the grad-transfer has come up with 10 stops, but five of his six missed tackles have occurred here. In coverage, the OLB has been fairly lockdown, having allowed three catches for just 16 yards across six targets, in addition to his interception and pass breakup.
Others to watch: Tra Thomas
Linebackers:
Caden Fordham - NC State’s leading tackler through six games is the 6-1, 230-pound ILB. Fordham has 59 tackles, five for a loss, 1.5 sacks, and a pass breakup this season. The graduate’s 9.83 tackles per game currently rank 13th among FBS defenders. He has had at least six tackles in each game, including three contests with 11 or more. Fordham recorded a season-high 15 tackles against Virginia Tech. He had 11 tackles and notched his sack versus East Carolina. And he tallied his pass breakup, in addition to six tackles, in the loss at Duke. Compared to the other starting LB, Soares Jr., Fordham is more of a cover backer who can move out to slot corner when needed. However, he has struggled in coverage, having allowed 19 catches for 134 yards and a touchdown across 26 targets. The LB has been good against the run, with a team-leading 22 stops, but all five of his missed tackles have come here. Fordham’s pass rush has been solid with three pressures, including the 1.5 sacks, across just 31 attempts.
Kenny Soares Jr. - Another veteran ILB to keep an eye on is the Northwestern grad-transfer. Soares has 22 tackles, including at least one in each game, and one tackle for loss this season. The 6-2, 233-pound LB recorded a season-high nine tackles last week in his first start of the year against Campbell. Soares was starting in place of the injured Sean Brown, who is averaging 8.8 tackles per game. Brown will likely be questionable for this weekend. For Soares, though, he has played good all-around, other than his four penalties, which are tied for the most on the defense. He has nine pressures, including two QB hits, across 69 pass rush attempts. The grad-transfer has 10 stops against the run with no missed tackles. When in coverage, which is on about 38% of pass plays, Soares has allowed four receptions for just 17 yards on four targets.
Others to watch: Sean Brown (out last week with injury), LaCorian Hodge
Defensive Backs:
Jamel Johnson - The first starting wide CB to highlight is the 5-11 Temple transfer. Johnson has 13 tackles, one for a loss, and three pass breakups this year. He has recorded two or more tackles in four games, including a season-high of five against East Carolina. Notably, all three of his pass breakups occurred in the loss to Virginia Tech. Johnson has been solid in coverage thus far, having allowed 12 receptions for 146 yards across 23 targets, in addition to the passes defended. The senior transfer has had minimal impact against the run with no stops, and one of his two missed tackles happened in this spot.
Devon Marshall - Opposite of Johnson is another 5-11 senior who leads the team in pass breakups with four. In addition, Marshall added 21 tackles this season, including at least one in each game. He recorded season-highs in tackles (five) and pass breakups (two) against East Carolina. Like Johnson, Marshall has been solid in coverage, with 14 catches allowed for 152 yards across 26 targets. The senior also has minimal impact against the run with just one stop and no misses this season.
Jivan Baly - The first of three freshmen DBs that have been thrust into key roles due to injuries this season is the 5-11, 172-pound slot corner/LB hybrid. Before last week’s contest against Campbell, Baly had only appeared on special teams. Last week, the redshirt freshman notched his first defensive snaps and start of the year when he racked up seven tackles with none missed. He allowed two receptions for 20 yards across five targets and made one stop against the run. This week will be quite the step up in competition for a DB that, at one point, looked to be just a key special teams player for this year.
Ronnie Royal III - At safety is the 5-9, 185-pound redshirt freshman. Royal has 24 tackles, an interception, and a pass breakup this season. He has at least one tackle in each game, including a season-high of eight last week against Campbell, where he also recorded a pass breakup. Royal had a nice outing at Wake Forest when he finished with four tackles and an interception. However, the freshman DB has struggled overall with a team-high seven missed tackles and four penalties. Royal has been burned in coverage for 211 yards and a touchdown on 16 receptions across just 20 targets. He has not been much better against the run, with just one stop, and four of his missed tackles have occurred here. Royal can play slot corner occasionally.
Asaad Brown Jr. - The third freshman DB to highlight is the six-foot, 199-pound Safety. Brown has 14 tackles in five games played, including starts the past three weeks. Notably, the young DB did not receive any defensive snaps in the team’s first two games. Brown recorded a season-high nine tackles against Virginia Tech and has not missed a tackle this season. He has been solid in coverage so far, with four catches for 35 yards allowed across five targets. Brown has had little impact against the run with just one stop.
Others to watch: Brian Nelson II, JJ Johnson, Brody Barnhardt (out last week with injury), Jackson Vick (out last three weeks with injury)
RIP Drue Eliot
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