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Recruits vs. Rankings: How Well Do They Hold Up?

Ranking high school recruits is not a perfect science by any means, and often it is met with its fair share of criticism, some of which is warranted, some overblown. This past Monday brought a new wave of debate regarding Notre Dame's 2026 class when the updated Rivals Industry rankings were released.

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Photo via Joey O'Brien, Instagram (@joey__obrien)


These rankings now weigh the averages between the recruiting rankings of 247Sports, ESPN, and Rivals (Formerly On3). Having studied all of these recruits myself, I want to go over where I feel the rankings are most out of whack, and where I would more or less agree.


Most Underrated


1) Noah Grubbs (QB)

Grubbs is a player that I have followed closely since his Sophomore campaign and have had the opportunity to watch in person. His arm strength took a noticeable jump between his second and third year at the high school level and should continue to improve. His processing time pre and post-snap also continues to get better, which gives him an advantage over other QBs at his competition level. Accuracy has always been a very strong part of his game, and his clean throwing mechanics allow for repeated success. He is someone who truly loves the game of football and doesn't shy away from striving to get better. Rivals currently has Grubbs listed as a 3-star sliding down the rankings, which, based on all of my analysis, is entirely too low. With his Senior season still coming up, I expect a jump in his rankings across the board.


Rivals Grade - 89 (3-Star)

My Grade - 92 (4-Star)


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2) Brayden Robinson (WR)

"Quick6ix" Robinson is one of the most electrifying players in the 2026 cycle. He has a gear that a lot of other players at his position just don't have, and as I noted in my scouting profile, he always appears to be playing at a different speed than his defensive counterparts. But speed is not the only thing Robinson brings to the table. Although he is on the smaller side, listed at around 160 pounds, his competitive toughness can not be understated. There is no fear when venturing over the middle through second-level defenders to make plays in traffic, and his willingness to block on the perimeter stands out. He is already an above-average route runner that, when paired with his speed and ability to get in and out of breaks, makes him a hard cover for any defensive back. He can go up and high point the ball even at his limited size and displays all the manual dexterity needed to be a reliable pass catcher. There is a reason Robinson was voted a captain by his fellow teammates.


Rivals Grade - 88 (3-Star)

My Grade - 91 (4-Star)


3) Thomas Davis Jr. (LB)

The Matthews, North Carolina native was one of Notre Dame's earliest commits in the 2026 class and one of the players I was most excited about after watching his film in late 2024. Davis Jr. is an athletically gifted linebacker who has filled in at multiple roles for his high school squad. He is a sure tackler who consistently flows to the ball and should rack up a lot of TFLs at the next level. He is more than capable of dropping back into Zone Coverage with enough foot quickness to carry tight ends and running backs in Man. He is a multi-use LB who can also be used as a rusher off the edge, which means he is capable of staying on the field all three downs. There is a reason that some other big-time programs were trying to land him, and Notre Dame being able to keep him committed was one of the biggest wins of the 2026 cycle.


Rivals Grade - 89 (3-Star)

My Grade - 91 (4-Star)


4) Sullivan Garvin (OT/OG)

Garvin took a bit of a tumble on the latest Rivals rankings, and based on the tape, I don't think it is justified. Although Allegan High School, where Garvin plays, does not participate in the highest division of Michigan High School Football, Garvin as a stand-alone prospect still offers plenty of upside. He plays every bit as physical as a 6'5" 300-pounder should. He possesses elite play strength and routinely clears out both front-line and second-level defenders in the run game. Garvin fits a Power Scheme to a tee and displays the type of nastiness you want out of an offensive lineman. He shows a good level of processing in both the pass and run game. He also does a good job of shuffling without crossing feet in pass pro and has excellent patience with his punch timing. He can really lock out and anchor down against power rushes, and could be an excellent fit as an interior lineman at the next level, but has the versatility to play in multiple spots.


Rivals Grade - 88 (3-Star)

My Grade - 90 (4-Star)


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Properly Rated


I also have to give credit where credit is due. Rivals had a couple of players that were more in line with my grades as opposed to some of the other recruiting services.


1) Chaston Smith (CB)

I have made it known that I think Chaston Smith is one of the most underrated prospects in the 2026 class. I understand that his injury during his Junior season may have contributed to what I feel is too low of a mark for him, but I don't think there will be any questions left about what he is capable of with a healthy Senior year. Smith has elite mental processing from the cornerback position, playing with very good eye discipline based on the coverage he is in. At 6'1", he has very good length, which he knows how to use when locked up man to man and can be left on an island on the perimeter. His Zone Coverage technique is just as good, and he excels at reading the QB's eyes and timing his break on routes. Add all that to the fact that he is also reliable in run support, and you have a total package defensive back. Smith currently has a 3-Star ranking from 247 and ESPN, but I can't imagine that lasts long.


Rivals Grade - 91 (4-star)

My Grade - 92 (4-Star)


2) Preston Fryzel (TE)

The 6'4" tight end from Toledo, Ohio, got a deserved bump up to a 4-Star from Rivals as compared to his 3-Star status with 247 and ESPN. Fryzel has excellent footwork on his releases off the LOS and is a good route runner who understands how to stem and play with leverage. Very good athlete who can be a playmaker at all three levels of the field. Big time Red Zone threat who knows how to high point the ball as well as how to use his big frame to box out and shield defenders that are behind him. He understands when to throttle down and find the void in coverage when working across the middle of the field. Although he has not really been asked to be an inline blocker, he shows aggressiveness when blocking on the perimeter, using good leg drive and hand placement.


Rivals Grade - 90 (4-Star)

My Grade - 90 (4-Star)


Biggest Surprise


Grayson McKeogh (OT)

No player saw a bigger jump in the new rankings than McKeogh did. He shot up to the No. 4 offensive tackle in the country and the No. 13th prospect overall according to Rivals. My surprise is not to say McKeogh doesn't have a skill set that projects nicely at the next level, but it is more so rooted in the fact that, ultimately, McKeogh has still only played one season as an offensive tackle. With no new data to work with, I don't know where exactly the rise came from, but it's clear he has a lot of believers. I broke down his film for a report in June, and there are definitely some intriguing things about his game. The first thing that stood out was his athletic ability at his size. He will need to put on some more mass, currently hovering around 275 pounds, but his explosiveness off the snap jumps off the screen, and he should be able to fit in a variety of blocking schemes. He is a good run blocker, with the lateral agility to be used as a pull tackle and get up to the second level, and his play strength allows him to wash out linebackers fairly consistently. His pass pro will need some more fine-tuning as he is still raw, but he shows that he can mirror vs speed rushers and has the recovery speed that allows him to run defensive ends past the QB. Of all the 2026 commits in Notre Dame's class, McKeogh is one I am most locked in on to follow his development as a Senior.


Rivals Grade - 97 (4-Star)

My Grade - 91 (4-Star)


Once the whistle blows and the game is played, rankings are nothing more than numbers on paper, and opinions can be completely changed within a matter of weeks. For Notre Dame's 2026 class, they still have one more season to go out and change the minds of prognosticators across the board who undervalued their game, or in some cases, simply solidify their already lofty rankings. I look forward to updating and adjusting my own rankings as next season unfolds, and will always be honest about my thoughts on a prospect.


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